KEY QUESTION

What can we read into the 2022 Hamilton West by-election, for the 2023 general election? Is it truly a ‘bellwether’ seat?

KEY INSIGHTS

  • 32 percentage point swing between the 2020 and 2022 National and Labour candidates:
    • In 2020, the Labour candidate (Gaurav Sharma) beat the National Candidate (Tim Macindoe) by 16 percentage points (52% vs 36%).
    • In 2022, the National candidate (Tama Potaka) beat the Labour Candidate (Georgie Dansey) by 16 percentage points (46% vs 30%).
  • ACT achieved their best-ever candidate result in the electorate, with their candidate (James McDowall) securing 10% of votes.
  • Gaurav Sharma ran again. He secured:
    • 31% of votes running for Labour in 2017.
    • 52% of votes running for Labour in 2020.
    • 8% running for Momentum in 2022.
  • National + ACT = 56% of votes
  • Labour + Greens = 30% of votes
  • Over the last 20 years (7 general elections and 1 by-election):
    • A National candidate has won 5 times and a Labour candidate 3 times.
    • On average:
      • National Hamilton-West candidates secure 7% more votes than their party’s national total.
      • Labour Hamilton-West candidates secure 6% more votes than their party’s national total.
        (However, that is before informal votes, disallowed votes, and wasted votes are removed which totaled 9% in 2020, so, overall, National and Labour often end up with slightly more seats than their candidates’ raw % votes).
  • Over the last 7 general elections, both Labour and National’s party votes for Hamilton West have averaged only a 1% difference from their party votes across New Zealand, and with a range of 0 to -3% fewer total party votes across NZ. This is why it’s regarded as a ‘bellwether’ seat. There was no party vote in the 2022 by-election, of course, so we can only use the candidate votes for insights.

(If you can’t see a table below with all voting data from 2002 to 2022, please try your desktop).

2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2022
Candidate – HW Party – HW Party – NZ Candidate – HW Party – HW Party – NZ Candidate – HW  Party – HW  Party – NZ Candidate – HW Party – HW Party – NZ Candidate – HW Party – HW Party – NZ Candidate – HW Party – HW Party – NZ Candidate – HW Party – HW Party – NZ Candidate – HW
Labour 48% 41% 41% 46% 41% 41% 43% 35% 34% 38% 29% 27% 35% 26% 25% 31% 37% 36% 52% 52% 49% 30%
National 30% 21% 21% 43% 40% 39% 48% 46% 44% 52% 47% 46% 52% 48% 46% 52% 46% 44% 36% 25% 25% 46%

KEY NOTES

  • The calibre of the individual candidate impacts votes, of course, not just the party they represent.
  • The decision by some parties and individuals to run or not run in the Hamilton West by-election impacts the vote % of those who did run:
    • The Green, NZ First, and Māori parties did not stand candidates in the by-election.
    • Gaurav Sharma, the former Labour MP for Hamilton West who left the Labour Party, stood under his Momentum Party and received 8% of the vote.
  • Voter turnout was 31.4% of eligible voters (although different numbers are being cited and we can not find an official number from the Electoral Commission, yet).
  • Like many of the recent local elections, there was again alphabetical bias in the way candidate names were shown on voting information and ballot papers. This is proven to give candidates at the top of lists (and to a lesser extent the name at the bottom too) an unfair advantage. Randomised candidate listings are best-practice.
  • Sometimes, a candidate can significantly outperform their party’s nationwide vote, e.g. Tim Macindoe who won 36% in 2020, but National only got 25% across New Zealand, or Sur Moroney who got 38% of votes in 2011, but Labour only got 27% of across New Zealand.
  • As mentioned earlier, ~9% of votes don’t end up counting due to informal votes, disallowed votes, and ‘wasted’ votes. This means that a party getting 45% of the vote ends up with closer to 50% of the seats.

…

Have your say

…

Full data analysis
Please contact us if you would like the full analysis.

…

Other notes:

  • We have ordered the political parties based on:
    • 1) Candidate votes on the 2022 by-election, and then
    • 2) Total party votes across New Zealand in the 2020 general election.
  • We have only labeled figures that are 5% or higher since this is the party-vote threshold to win a seat.
  • We did not include Advance NZ in the key as they have never won an electorate or list seat. They are shown under Other.
  • We have not used the language ‘left wing’ and ‘right wing’ or ‘left block’ and ‘right block’ as there is no quantifiable way to define or measure which party is left or right, and by how much. However, we have shown a combined tally in the table above for National + ACT and Labour + Greens since they have frequently been partners in Governments over the last 20 years.
  • We chose 3 election cycles for the graphic to:
    • Maximise readability and engagement with the audience.
    • Represent elections where both National and Labour won significantly more votes.
  • We chose 20 years for the table because:
    • 2 decades and 7 general elections feels like a good time frame.
    • Any older elections are less relevant to today’s voter sentiment.
    • These 7 general elections represent a fair split between the two major parties:
      • National got the most votes and formed a Government 3 times.
      • Labour got the most votes and formed a Government 3 times.
      • National got the most votes but NZ First chose Labour as their coalition partner 1 time in 2017.
  • We chose the graph colours based on the dominant unique colour from each political party’s website.
  • All numbers are provisional and subject to revision.

Thank you to the Factors who helped pull this together.

…

SOURCES:

Data published by Electoral Commission
(c) Crown Copyright
Licensed for use under the creative commons attribution licence (BY) 4.0

Data published by New Zealand Parliament
(c) Crown Copyright
Licensed for use under the creative commons attribution licence (BY) 4.0

…

Did we make a mistake, or have you got smarter data?  Let us know.

Recent Facts

~2:1 voters support the reworded Treaty Principles Bill (~4:1 Nat, 5:1 NZF, 2:1 A, 1:1 L/G)

~2:1 voters support the reworded Treaty Principles Bill (~4:1 Nat, 5:1 NZF, 2:1 A, 1:1 L/G)

October 14, 2024
>3:1 voters support the Treaty Principles Bill (4:1 National, 6:1 Labour)

>3:1 voters support the Treaty Principles Bill (4:1 National, 6:1 Labour)

March 14, 2024
No org’ trusted by 50% of Kiwis on Treaty information (media & politicians

No org’ trusted by 50% of Kiwis on Treaty information (media & politicians <10%)

February 5, 2024
~2:1 voters support the reworded Treaty Principles Bill (~4:1 Nat, 5:1 NZF, 2:1 A, 1:1 L/G)

~2:1 voters support the reworded Treaty Principles Bill (~4:1 Nat, 5:1 NZF, 2:1 A, 1:1 L/G)

October 14, 2024
>3:1 voters support the Treaty Principles Bill (4:1 National, 6:1 Labour)

>3:1 voters support the Treaty Principles Bill (4:1 National, 6:1 Labour)

March 14, 2024
No org’ trusted by 50% of Kiwis on Treaty information (media & politicians

No org’ trusted by 50% of Kiwis on Treaty information (media & politicians <10%)

February 5, 2024