KEY INSIGHTS
Based on this research by Curia, when it comes to the support : opposition ratios for each of the three proposed Treaty Principles:

  • ALL NEW ZEALANDERS = 1.9, 1.7,  & 4.4x more support than opposition for the three respective principles (average 2.7, median 1.9). This is consistent with the 2:1 support ratio shown in other polls.
  • National voters overwhelmingly support all three principles 5.8, 3.1, 7.8x (average = 5.6x)
  • ACT voters overwhelmingly support all three principles  2.6,7.9, 43.5x (average = 18.0x)
  • NZ First voters overwhelmingly support all three principles 2.5, 1.9, 9.9x (average = 4.7x)
  • Labour voters also support all three principles 1.2, 1.2, 3.2x (average = 1.8x)
  • Green voters oppose the first two principles but support the third = 0.6, 0.5, 1.2x (average = 0.8x)
  • Te Pāti Māori voters overwhelmingly oppose all three principles = 0.1, 0.5, 0.1 (average = 0.2x)

Other voters data was not provided in the polling results.
NOTE: We have shown the parties current polling based on the last three available polls in brackets, to remind the viewers that not all parties carry the same support.

7 KEY QUESTIONS

  1. Given most Kiwis still support the Bill by ~2:1, why is this not reflected in mainstream media coverage?
  2. Why has the National Party been so strong in its commitment to support the Bill only to the first reading when an overwhelming majority of their voters want it? Do they have a better solution?
  3. Why has NZ First been so strong in its commitment to support the Bill only to the first reading when an overwhelming majority of their voters want it? Do they have a better solution?
  4. Why has Labour been so opposed to the Bill when a majority of their voters support all three principles? Do they also have a better solution?
  5. Why have the Greens been so opposed to the Bill when their voters are split on the issue?
  6. Does the ACT Party have superior voter research skills/suppliers compared to the other parties, who seem to have misread the nation on this issue?
  7. In general, how do we resolve disagreements around the Treaty/Te Tiriti to achieve greater social unity in New Zealand going forward?

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HAVE YOUR SAY


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FULL DATA ANALYSIS
Please contact us if you would like the full data set and research.

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ADDITIONAL NOTES:

  • The research was conducted by Curia Market Research.
  • The research was sponsored by the ACT Party.
  • Polling dates = December 1-3, 2024
  • Sample size = 1,000 (800 by phone and 200 by online panel)
  • Weighted for = gender, age, area
  • Sample error = +/-3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
  • Question asked:

A bill before Parliament has proposed three principles to be defined in legislation at the
principles of the Treaty of Waitangi. For each of the proposed principles please indicate
whether you would support or oppose it being legislated as a principle of the Treaty of
Waitangi.

1. The Executive Government of New Zealand has full power to govern, and the
Parliament of New Zealand has full power to make laws in the best interests of
everyone; and in accordance with the rule of law and the maintenance of a free and
democratic society.

2. The Crown recognises, and will respect and protect, the rights that hapū and iwi
Māori had under the Treaty of Waitangi/te Tiriti o Waitangi at the time they signed it.
However, if those rights differ from the rights of everyone, this applies only if those
rights are agreed in the settlement of a historical treaty claim under the Treaty of
Waitangi Act 1975.

3. Everyone is equal before the law. Everyone is entitled, without discrimination, to the
equal protection and equal benefit of the law; and the equal enjoyment of the same
fundamental human rights.

  • Additional demographic insights can be found via the data source below.
  • We chose to focus the graphic on the support and opposition for the Treaty Principles Bill by party, rather than gender, age or location, since the Bill’s legislative fate will first be decided by political party votes in Parliament.
  • For the graph colours:
    • We chose black for all New Zealand voters since it’s our national colour.
    • The political party colours from their brand logos and colour palettes.
  • We grouped the three Coalition parties first and ordered them by size, before doing the same for the three Opposition parties.
  • We added each party’s current polling percentages in brackets based on the last three polls available at the time of publishing.
  • We have led with the support:oppose ratio since:
    • If this does go to a Government referendum or citizens’ initiated referendum, then only binary yes/no or support/oppose options will likely be given. There will be no unsure option.
    • If this does not go to referendum, it will still have an influence on party polling and voting at the next election, which is most influenced by those feeling strongly one way or another on issues, rather than those that feel indifferent or unsure in the middle.
      NOTE: some analysts will lead with a net support figure. We don’t believe this is best for the reasons above. It also downplays the level of support, and is hard for the layman observer to interpret these numbers, e.g. net support of 5% could be 50-45% or 30-25%.
  • We rounded the support:oppose ratios in the graphic to 1 decimal point to balance accuracy with comprehension, design, and engagement levels.
  • We cut off the y vertical axis at 6x so that the results were more easy to read.
  • All numbers are provisional and subject to revision.

Thank you to the Factors who helped pull this together.

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SOURCE:

Research Report = https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/mailings/14478/attachments/original/Treaty_Poll_ACT_Dec24.pdf?1734061223

Republished with permission

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Did we make a mistake, or have you got smarter data?  Let us know.

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