22 INSIGHTS OVER 10 YEARS

Red cards:

• New Zealand has now received a red card every year for 4 years in a row (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022)
• Over the last 10 years, New Zealand has received 5 red cards and opposition teams 4 red cards (including Bismarck du Plessis’ 2 yellows in 2013 that turned into a red)
• In 7/8 of those games (88%), if a team gets a red card, they lose:
  • The exception being when the All Blacks beat Australia 38-21 on September 5th 2021.
  • NOTE: In the All Blacks vs Australia game on November 7th 2020, Australia also got a red card after New Zealand. Ofa Tu’ungafasi (NZ) was red-carded in the 23rd minute, and then Lachlan Swinton (AU) was red-carded in the 35th minute. Australia won 24-22.

Yellow cards:

• Over the last 10 years, the All Blacks have received 54% more yellow cards than their opponents (60 vs 39)
• The All Black with the most cards over this period is Kieran Read with 5 yellow cards.
• 5 All Blacks have received 3 cards over this time:
  • Ofa Tu’ungafasi (1 red, 2 yellow)
  • Sonny Bill Williams (1 red, 2 yellow)
  • Sam Whitelock (3 yellow)
  • Sam Cane (3 yellow)
  • Wyatt Crockett (3 yellow)
• 3 opposition players have received two yellow cards over this period:
  • Mako Vunipola (England)
  • Pablo Matera (Argentina)
  • Bismarck du Plessis (South Africa) who got 2 yellows in the same game, with the latter becoming a red

Total cards

• 55% of games have had at least one card (72/130)
• The All Blacks get a card every two games (0.50 per game)
• The All Blacks’ opponents get a card every three games (0.33 per game)
• There have been 4 games with 4 cards:
  • New Zealand (1 red, 2 yellows) vs Ireland (1 yellow) July 9th 2022. Ireland won 23-12.
  • Australia (1 red, 1 yellow) vs New Zealand (1 red, 1 yellow) November 7th 2020. AU won 24-22.
  • Argentina (2 yellows) vs New Zealand (2 yellows) October 1st 2017. NZ won 36-10.
  • New Zealand (2 yellows) vs South Africa (1 red, 1 yellow) September 14th 2013. NZ won 29-15.

All Blacks

• Of the All Blacks’ 16 losses over this period:
  • They got red cards in 4 of them
  • 6 had no cards for either team
  • 3 the opposition got a yellow card
  • 3 the All Blacks got a yellow card.
• Of the 6 games where the All Blacks have had 2 yellow cards and the opposition none, the All Blacks have still won 5 of those games and tied the other.
• The two facts above support the idea that “red cards lose games, but yellow cards don’t necessarily lose games”
• Of the 5 draws over this period:
  • 2 games had no cards
  • 1 game had a yellow each
  • 1 game the ABs got a yellow
  • 1 game the ABs got 2 yellows

Other team stats of interest

• IRELAND – In 11 matches vs Ireland over this period, the All Blacks have received 10 cards (1 red, 9 yellows) versus Ireland’s 2 yellows only. In the last 8 games, the ratio is 9 vs 1 card, and the teams have split the games with 4 wins each.
• AUSTRALIA – The most cards the All Blacks have had over this period is 18 versus Australia. The teams have played 30 times over the last 10 years, with New Zealand getting 3 red cards (out of their 5 total) and 15 yellow cards. Australia has received 1 red card and 10 yellows in these games.
• SCOTLAND – In the last 3 games versus Scotland, New Zealand has got 3 yellow cards and Scotland none.
• WALES – In the last 8 games versus Wales, New Zealand has got 4 yellow cards and Wales none.
• FRANCE – The All Blacks best discipline against the top tier teams is France, with 3 yellow cards in the last 11 games, compared to France’s 1 red, and 4 yellows.
• ITALY – There have been no cards for either team in the last 4 games between New Zealand and Italy.
• OTHER team cards vs the All Blacks are very similar tallies overall. Please contact us if you’d like the full data analysis.

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Why do the All Blacks get 54% more yellow cards than their opposition?

Is this bad strategy, or does it reflect a “harder” style that pays dividends elsewhere?

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Full data analysis
Please contact us if you would like the full analysis.

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Notes:

• We chose a 10-year period because:
  • 10-years is a good measurement of time.
  • 10-years reflects modern rules and red/yellow card interpretations.
  • The ESPN data set showed 10-years of data.
• There were only 6 games played in 2020 due to Covid lockdown policies.
• All numbers are provisional and subject to revision.

Thank you to the Factors who helped pull this together.

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SOURCES:

ESPN = https://www.espn.com/rugby/results/_/team/8/season/2022 (a great source to see who got carded, but they omitted the two losses to France and Ireland at the end of 2021, and miscounted a midweek game vs a France XV as an international)

NZ Herald = https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby-live-updates-all-blacks-v-france-at-stade-de-france-in-paris-teams-kick-off-time-live-streaming-and-how-to-watch/EDNGCJ43ULMOJHNQPVJBVLJ5K4/ and https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby-live-updates-all-blacks-v-ireland-at-aviva-stadium-in-dublin-teams-kick-off-time-live-streaming-and-how-to-watch/Y6C56EALL4ALEDHZERP4AGWUTU/ (the two games that ESPN missed)

Wikipedia = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Zealand_rugby_union_test_matches

All Blacks = https://www.allblacks.com/fixtures/all-blacks

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Did we make a mistake, or have you got smarter data?  Let us know.