KEY INSIGHTS

• September 2023 results
  • Right direction = 25% (1/3 of the 77% peak in April 2020) 
  • Wrong direction = 60% (4x the 14% low in April 2020 and January 2018)
  • Net direction/confidence = -35%
• Curia
  • Record low of -42% in July (22% right direction – 65% wrong direction)
  • -36% in August (2nd equal lowest score in 2.5 years)
  • -36% in September (2nd equal lowest score in 2.5 years)
• Essential
  • -24% in August
  • -34% in September (a record low, but only two months of polling data)
• Roy Morgan
  • Record low of -31.5% in July (29.0% right direction – 60.5% wrong direction) since the series began 16 years ago
  • -24% in August (3rd lowest score in 16 years. The 2nd lowest was -25% in December 2022)
  • September results have not been released yet

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KEY QUESTION

1. How does New Zealand get back on the “right direction” path?

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HAVE YOUR SAY

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About the polling companies

• The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been going for 16 years since August 2007. They started polling twice monthly (once in December), and now poll monthly.

“Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in NZ are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

• The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Country Direction metric has been going since the start of 2021. They also poll monthly and use the same “right direction” versus “wrong direction” questioning. The Roy Morgan and Curia results have been very consistent with each other over this shared timeframe.
• The Essential Report is a new addition, having polled two months so far. Their results are also consistent with Roy Morgan and Curia.
• Talbot Mills also measures Government Confidence but:
  • This is a private paid service and not publicly available.
  • The limited data we have seen has been inconsistent with Roy Morgan and Curia’s over time.
• Newshub-Reid, One News-Verian, and IPSOS do not appear to poll for Government Confidence. If they do, we will update the graph in a future release.

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Full data analysis
Please contact us if you would like the full analysis as the table is far too large to insert into the content here.

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Other notes:

• All publicly available data has been published.
• For plotting the polling date, we have used:
  • The median fieldwork date if it has been provided by the polling companies, otherwise
  • The median date in the fieldwork range. If there are two median dates for an even number of days, we have used the earlier day.
• There was no Roy Morgan poll in December 2015
• Additional notes from Roy Morgan can be found in the data source pages below.
• All numbers are provisional and subject to revision.

Thank you to Roy Morgan and the Factors who helped pull this together.

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SOURCES:

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Ratings = https://www.roymorgan.com/morgan-poll/new-zealand-government-confidence

(c) Copyright Roy Morgan

Republished under permission

 

Curia Country Direction = paid report for Caucus Members. Publicly available information can be found at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/pollingarchive

(c) Copyright Taxpayers’ Union and Curia Market Research

Republished under permission

 

 

Essential Report ‘The Mood’ = https://essentialreport.co.nz/questions/the-mood-2/

(c) Copyright Essential Report

Republished under permission

 

 

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Did we make a mistake, or have you got smarter data?  Let us know.

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