KEY INSIGHTS
Based on this research by Curia and commissioned by the Taxpayers’ Union, when it comes to the proposed Treaty Principles Bill:

• 60% of New Zealand voters support it, 18% oppose it, and 22% are unsure  (a 3.3 : 1 support to oppose ratio)
• 66% of National voters support it, 15% oppose, 19% unsure (4.4 : 1)
• 62% of Labour voters support it, 10% oppose, 28% unsure (6.2 : 1)

FULL INSIGHTS
The figures shown below represent support %, oppose %, unsure %, support:oppose ratio.

• All parties:
  • National = 66%, 15%, 19%, 4.4
  • Labour = 62%, 10%, 28%, 6.2
  • Greens = 34%, 33%, 33%, 1.0
  • ACT = 77%, 12%, 11%, 6.4
  • Unsure = 62%, 4%, 34%, 15.5[The sample size for NZ First and Te Pāti Māori was deemed too small]
• Gender:
  • Males = 62%, 17%, 20%, 3.6
  • Females = 58%, 18%, 24%, 3.2
• Age:
  • 18-39 = 59%, 15%, 26%, 3.9
  • 40-59 = 55%, 23%, 23%, 2.4
  • 60+ = 67%, 15%, 18%, 4.5
• Location:
  • Auckland = 56%, 23%, 21%, 2.4
  • Wellington = 59%, 21%, 20%, 2.8
  • Christchurch = 60%, 8%, 32% = 7.5
  • Provincial Cities = 62%, 14%, 23%, 4.4
  • Towns = 59%, 18%, 24%, 3.3
  • Rural = 67%, 15%, 18%, 4.5
• Deprivation:
  • Least = 64%, 14%, 22%, 4.6
  • Moderate = 61%, 18%, 20%, 3.4
  • Most = 53%, 21%, 26%, 2.5

NOTE: The poll also has insights into whether a referendum is the right mechanism to ask whether this should become law. Since that is only one method, we have focused on general support for the Bill in this first instance.

KEY QUESTIONS

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HAVE YOUR SAY

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FULL DATA ANALYSIS
Please contact us if you would like the full data set and research.

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ADDITIONAL NOTES:

• The research was conducted by Curia Market Research and paid for by the Taxpayers’ Union.
• Polling dates = October 1-4, 2023
• Sample size = 1,000
• Question asked:

Would you support or oppose a Treaty Principles Act that defined the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi as follows:
1 The New Zealand Government has the right to govern New Zealand.
2 The New Zealand Government will protect all New Zealanders’ authority over their land and other property.
3 All New Zealanders are equal under the law, with the same rights and duties

• Additional methodology variables can be seen at https://assets.nationbuilder.com/taxpayers/pages/2336/attachments/original/1707694872/NZTU_Curia_October_23_%E2%80%93_Treaty_Principles.pdf?1707694872
• We chose to focus on the support and opposition for the Treaty Principles Bill for this fact, rather than a potential referendum mechanism to deliver it into law since that is only one method, and this hasn’t even gone to the first reading or select committee yet. We also find that less is more when it comes to sharing facts, and it’s always better to focus on one element rather than multiple at once. We may share a fact on whether a referendum is the right legal mechanism at a later date, depending on how the debate goes.
• In the graphic, we chose to show the total polling figures and then only for National and Labour voters, since they are significant insights that seem to have been missed in most media articles. However, we have provided the full table of insights above for all parties, genders, ages, locations, and deprivation levels.
• For the graph colours, we chose to highlight the level of support in the bolder colour since support made up ~2/3 of responses.
  • We chose black for all New Zealand voters since it’s our national colour.
  • National’s blue from their logo.
  • Labour’s red from their logo.
• We adjusted the area sizes of the National and Labour party pie graphs to represent their share of the vote at the 2023 election.
• We highlighted the support:oppose ratio since if this does go to a Government referendum or citizens’ initiated referendum, then only binary yes/no or support/oppose options will likely be given.
• We rounded the support:oppose ratios in the graphic to whole numbers to improve comprehension, design, and engagement levels. We also felt this was a good idea due to the party sample sizes being a bit smaller. Please note, though, that the support ratios for all three pie graphs are higher than the rounded-down ratios.
• All numbers are provisional and subject to revision.

Thank you to the Factors who helped pull this together.

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SOURCE:

Research Report = https://assets.nationbuilder.com/taxpayers/pages/2336/attachments/original/1707694872/NZTU_Curia_October_23_%E2%80%93_Treaty_Principles.pdf?1707694872

Republished with permission

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Did we make a mistake, or have you got smarter data?  Let us know.

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