KEY INSIGHTS

  • Every 12 years, the New Zealand general election window aligns with the Rugby World Cup.
  • So far there have been three clashes: 1987, 1999, and 2011. And in every single one of those, the knockout game was against France.
  • 2023 will be the fourth such instance.
  • Given how much the All Black’s performance affects the mood of the nation, it can significantly impact voter turnout and sentiment on election day.
  • As such, incumbent Governments and Prime Ministers are very strategic around how they plan the election date around Rugby World Cup tournaments:
    • In 1987, David Lange decided to call the election two months after the first World Cup Final. A decision that paid off as the All Blacks won at home, and then Labour won the election.
    • In 1999, Jenny Shipley called the election for less than one month after the final in Wales. The All Blacks had a shock come-from-behind loss to France in the semi-final in London, and then also lost the playoff for 3rd place against South Africa a week later. Not a great outcome for the incumbent National Government, which also went on to lose the election just 3 weeks later.
    • In 2011, John Key had better luck when the All Blacks again won the final at home on October 23rd, and National won that election a month later.
    • For 2023, Jacinda Ardern didn’t have much choice around timings. Labour wanted as much time as possible but couldn’t risk choosing Saturday, September 9th in case the All Blacks lost the opening pool game to France that morning. Nor could they choose October 21st or any date after it in case the All Blacks lose a quarter-final to (likely) South Africa or Ireland the week earlier. As such, they have placed their bets on the All Blacks beating Namibia, Italy, and Uruguay in pool play and qualifying for the quarter-finals which, fortunately for Labour, will be on a Sunday or Monday morning allowing the election to take place on Saturday, October 14th with, hopefully for Labour, a happy and excited rugby nation looking forward to a quarter-final.

KEY QUESTIONS

  1. Do you think the new Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins, will
    1. Leave the election date as it is.
    2. Call a snap election – bringing the date forward.
    3. Push the election date out further into November, and risk an All Blacks win?
  2. How much do you think the All Black’s Rugby World Cup result impacts elections?
  3. Will we again face France for a 4th knock-out game out of 4 election years?

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Have your say

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Full data analysis
Please contact us if you would like the full analysis.

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More detailed political results

  • Rugby World Cup years:
    • After the 1987 RWC win, Labour’s seats remained at 59%, but their party vote increased from 43% in 1984 to 48% in 1987 (this was under the old First Past the Post system whereby Labour and National both won more seats than their party vote support due to the winner-takes-all method in each electorate.).
    • After the 1999 RWC loss, National’s seats dropped from 37%  in 1996 to 33% in 1999, and their party vote dropped from 34 to 31% (this was under the new Mixed Member Proportional system whereby an average of 6% of votes are ‘wasted’ or informal votes each election. On top of this, there are also disallowed special votes which we haven’t gotten to the bottom of, yet.
    • After the 2011 RWC win, National’s seats increased from 48% in 2008 to 49% in 2009, and their party vote increased from 45% to 47%.
  • 1984 and 2022 snap elections:
    • In the 1984 snap election, National’s seats dropped from 51% in 1981 to 39% in 1984, but their party vote dropped only slightly from 39% to 36% (such were the quirks of FPP).
    • In the 2002 snap election, Labour’s seats and party increased only 2% from 41%/39% in 1999 to 43%/41% in 2002. However, National’s seats dropped significantly from 33% in 1999 to 23% in 2003, and their party vote from 31% to 21%. NZ First were the main beneficiaries going from 4% to 11% seats, and also United Future which went from 1% to 7% of the seats, while Alliance dropped from 8% seats to none.

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Political commentary

  • See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_New_Zealand_general_election for more information about the 1984 to 2020 elections, especially the reasons and strategy behind the snap elections in 1984 and 2002. (Click the -> arrows to go forward to the next election date).
  • From https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/about-elections/what-happens-in-a-general-election/:
    • “Before Parliament’s maximum term of 3-years is over, the Prime Minister (PM) must decide when the next general election will be held.”
    • “Once the PM announces the date, the general election cycle starts, following the rules in the Constitution Act 1986 and the Electoral Act 1993.”
    • “The PM can call a ‘snap election’ or early election — an election held before the 3-year term is up. However, snap elections aren’t common in New Zealand.”
  • From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_New_Zealand:
    • “New Zealand general elections generally occur every three years.”
    • “Unlike some other countries, New Zealand has no fixed election-date for general elections, but rather the prime minister determines the timing of general elections by advising the governor-general when to issue the writ for a general election.”
    • “The Constitution Act 1986 requires new parliamentary elections every three years.[20] The 1910s, 1930s and 1940s saw three elections delayed due to World War I, the Great Depression and World War II, respectively: the 1919, 1935 and 1943 elections would otherwise have taken place in 1917, 1934 and 1941 (Parliaments passed Acts extending their terms).”
    • Also, governments have occasionally called early, or “snap” elections (for example, in 1951 in the midst of an industrial dispute involving striking waterfront workers).[21]”
    • “New Zealand law requires elections at least once every three years and two months, though elections are often held after three years, traditionally in November.[22] The extra two months allow for some flexibility when returning to a fourth-quarter election after an early election, as happened in 2005 and 2008 after the 2002 snap election.”
    • “Early or “snap” elections have occurred at least three times in New Zealand’s history: in 1951, 1984 and 2002. Early elections often provoke controversy, as they potentially give governing parties an advantage over opposition candidates. Note that of the three elections in which the government won an increased majority, two involved snap elections (1951 and 2002 – the other incumbent-boosting election took place in 1938). The 1984 snap election backfired on the government of the day: many believe that the Prime Minister, Robert Muldoon, called it while drunk.[23][24]”
    • “The 1996 election took place slightly early (on 12 October) to avoid holding a by-election after the resignation of Michael Laws.”
    • “Party strategists take the timing of important rugby union matches into account, partly because a major match in the same weekend of the election will likely lower voting-levels, and partly because of a widespread belief that incumbent governments benefit from a surge of national pride when the All Blacks (the New Zealand national rugby team) win and suffer when they lose.”
    • “Tradition associates elections with November – give or take a few weeks. After disruptions to the 36-month cycle, prime ministers tend to strive to restore it to a November base.”
    • “In 1950, the legal requirement to hold elections on a Saturday was introduced,[27] and this first applied to the 1951 election. Beginning with the 1957 election, a convention was formed to hold general elections on the last Saturday of November. This convention was upset by Robert Muldoon calling a snap election in 1984. It took until the 1999 election to get back towards the convention, only for Helen Clark to call an early election in 2002. By the 2011 election, the conventional “last Saturday of November” was achieved again.[28] However, the convention was broken again for the 2014 and 2017 elections, which both occurred on the second-to-last Saturday in September. The 2020 election was initially scheduled to follow this new pattern, but was delayed by a month due to a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, and instead took place on the second-to-last Saturday in October.”

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Notes:

  • Rugby World Cups occur every 4 years. New Zealand General Elections occur every 3 years. This is why there is an alignment only every 12 years.
  • Because this post is about the alignment of New Zealand General Elections and Rugby World Cups, we focused on those dates.
  • We included commentary for the 1984 and 2002 snap elections since they are election date outliers that might be of interest.
  • We also included 1984 in our research as we were curious to see if the incumbent (Labour) increased their seats. They stayed the same at 59% of seats and increased their party vote from 43% to 48% (this was the old First Past the Post System).
  • We have labelled an All Blacks World Cup win with a + sign and a loss with an X.
  • We have colour-coded each election date to show which Prime Minister/Party made that decision.
  • All numbers are provisional and subject to revision.

Thank you to the Factors who helped pull this together.

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SOURCE:

Data published by Electoral Commission
(c) Crown Copyright
Licensed for use under the creative commons attribution licence (BY) 4.0

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Did we make a mistake, or have you got smarter data?  Let us know.

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