KEY INSIGHTS
Core Crown Finance Costs are:
- Forecast to hit $10 billion NZD (2% of GDP) by 2027
- Now greater ($6.6b in 2023) than the expenditure on:
- Law & Order ($6.2b)
- Transport & Communications ($5.5b)
KEY QUESTIONS
- Are we happy with this level of debt and interest cost?
- Are we happy with the quality of this investment/spending of this taxpayer money?
…
HAVE YOUR SAY
…
FULL DATA ANALYSIS
Please contact us if you would like the full data set and research.
…
ADDITIONAL NOTES:
- The 2023 figure is an unaudited actual figure.
- The 2024-2027 figures are forecasts based on many Government and Treasury assumptions.
- We have shared the graph in NZD billions first this week, and % of GDP second, because:
- There are many contested assumptions in the forecast GDP numbers.
- Government/Treasury forecasts have not been very accurate in recent years.
- The NZD estimate is easier to forecast, therefore, likely more accurate.
- The NZD figure includes both debt interest and inflation figures, and the Government has influence over both.
- We started the graph in 2005 because:
- This is when the as that is when the PBE Standard begun, so allows for a consistent data approach.
- It also allows us to compare between different governments.
- If we go too far back, inflation starts to make the figures hard, if not impossible, to compare.
- The GFC, earthquakes, Covid response, flooding, and other similar economic and environmental events all have an impact on debt levels.
- Additional notes from Treasury can be found in the data source pages below.
- All numbers are provisional and subject to revision.
Thank you to the Factors who helped pull this together.
…
SOURCES:
- 1972-2021 = https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/information-release/data-fiscal-time-series-historical-fiscal-indicators (Excel file > “Spending” worksheet)
- 2018-2027 = https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/pre-election-economic-and-fiscal-update-2023 > Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2023 – Charts and Data > Worksheet ‘Data Fig 2.4’
Data published by The Treasury
(c) Crown Copyright
Licensed for use under the creative commons attribution licence (BY) 4.0
…
Did we make a mistake, or have you got smarter data? Let us know.
