Key insights
- 50% of New Zealanders polled (Roy Morgan in May, Curia in June) believe New Zealand is heading in the “wrong direction”.
- 40% and 36% believe New Zealand is heading in the “right direction”.
- 10% and 14% “can’t say”/unsure.
- The worst “wrong direction” score from either poll since 2007, and the only other time it’s hit 50%, was 51.5% in the March 2022 Roy Morgan poll.
- The highest “right direction” score from either poll was 77% in the April 2020 Roy Morgan poll.
- See last week’s post for related details on Government confidence scores.
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How does New Zealand get back on the “right direction” path from here?
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Have your say
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About the polling companies
- The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been going for almost 15 years since August 2007. They started polling twice monthly (once in December), took a break in 2018-2019 after the 2017 election, and now poll monthly.
“Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in NZ are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
- The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Country Direction metric has been going since the start of 2021. They also poll monthly and use the same “right direction” versus “wrong direction” questioning.
- The Roy Morgan and Curia results are very consistent with each other, so we have decided to create average scores and dates for January 2021 to May 2022. For June 2022, only Curia’s results have been released at the time of publishing.
- Talbot Mills also measures Government Confidence but:
- This is a private paid service and not publicly available.
- The limited data we have seen is inconsistent with Roy Morgan and Curia’s.
- Newshub-Reid, One News-Kantar, and IPSOS do not appear to poll for Government Confidence. If they do, we will update the graph in a future release.
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Full data analysis
Please contact us if you would like the full analysis as the table is far too large to insert into the content here.
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Other notes:
- All publicly available data has been published.
- We have received permission from both Roy Morgan and Curia to share this data.
- For the polling date, we have used:
- The median polling date if provided by the polling companies, otherwise
- The median date in the polling range. If there are two median dates for an even number of days, we have used the earlier day.
- For the combined/averaged polling figures from January 2021 to May 2022, we have taken the median of the two median dates.
- There was no Roy Morgan poll in December 2015
- Additional notes from Roy Morgan and Curia can be found in the data source pages below.
- All numbers are provisional and subject to revision.
Thank you to Roy Morgan, The Taxpayers’ Union, Curia, and the Factors who helped pull this together.
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SOURCES:
Roy Morgan May = https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8974-nz-national-voting-intention-may-2022-202206070538
Roy Morgan all time = http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/new-zealand/nz-government-confidence
Curia June = https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/taxpayers_union_curia_poll_june_2022
(c) Copyright Roy Morgan
(c) Copyright Taxpayers’ Union
(c) Copyright Curia Market Research
Republished under permission
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Did we make a mistake, or have you got smarter data? Let us know.
