KEY INSIGHTS

• The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey is done quarterly and has been running for 20 years.
• For the latest quarter, both key metrics fell to record lows:
  • Net confidence in own farm performance fell to -53% (7% improve – 60% worsen)
  • Net confidence in the broader agricultural economy fell to -71% (4% improve – 75% worsen)
• Those who feel that the agricultural economy will worsen were asked why:
  • 68% said ‘Government intervention / policies’
  • 51% said ‘Rising input costs’
  • 25% said ‘Rising interest rates’
  • 21% said ‘Falling commodity prices’[Other variable scores below this were not shared]

KEY QUESTIONS

1. Is the city-country divide widening?
2. If so, how do we restore greater understanding, empathy, and unity?

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Full data analysis
Please contact Rabobank if you would like the full analysis.

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Notes:

• See https://www.rabobank.co.nz/media-releases/2022/221214-new-zealand-farmer-confidence-plunges-to-record-low-1/ for additional commentary.
  • “Conducted since 2003, the Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey is administered by independent research agency TNS, interviewing a panel of approximately 450 farmers each quarter.”
• Rabobank has shared the last 13 years of data with us. If you would like the full 20 years of data, please contact them.
• The two questions and options asked for the two lines in the graph above are:
  • How do you expect your farm business to perform in the next 12 months?
    • Improve
    • Stay the same
    • Worsen
    • Don’t know
  • How do you expect the broader agricultural economy to perform in the next 12 months?
    • Improve
    • Stay the same
    • Worsen
    • Don’t know
• The question asked for why they felt the agricultural economy would worsen was:
  • And why do you expect the agricultural economy to worsen?
    • Drought
    • Falling commodity prices
    • Rising input costs
    • Rising New Zealand dollar
    • Government intervention / policies
    • Poor marketing of agricultural products
    • Overseas marks / economies
    • Rising interest rates
    • Other
    • Other
    • Don’t know
• All numbers are provisional and subject to revision.

Thank you to the Factors who helped pull this together.

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SOURCES:

• Rabobank shared the data privately.

(c) Copyright Rabobank New Zealand Limited.

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Did we make a mistake, or have you got smarter data?  Let us know.